Saturday, November 22, 2008

My analysis of what happened to the GOP on November 5

1. Mandate
a. A swing of 2-3% would have given the election to McCain. With nearly 50% of the voters against Barry, he can not claim a mandate. The Republicans (especially those in the Senate) must stand united and not be rolled by the democrats and the media into allowing Barry and the Liberals to do whatever they want because they were given a “mandate” by the “people” The numbers are hardly a mandate and the people voted for a pretty, handsome, eloquent first black American President not for what he said ( which was very little).
b. This means anything that would be considered a radical social or cultural shift (tax increases, gay marriage, union ballots, reinstatement of fairness doctrine, unlimited immigration, same day voter registration, liberal judges, etc
2. Electorate. An analysis of why who voted for whom is in order
a. Forget blacks, urban elite, yellow dog democrats
b. The “Franks”: registered Republicans who voted for Barry. These were those who were totally disgusted at the Bush Administration and voted Democratic not so much as for Obama but against Bush. McCain being an insider was considered Bush Lite or Bush III. A governor from the outside would have won these voters over.
c. Lukewarm Conservatives. These either did not vote or did not fight with passion. The lack of a conservative standard bearer was the cause. They felt the Party had swerved badly from its principles and had become just as bad as the Demos. Palin helped but too little too late.
d. Given a highly unpopular president, an unpopular war, a recession and a financial crisis one month before the election, it is surprising the Republicans did as well as they did. Without that last event, it would have been good chance for McCain.
3. Strategy and Tactics
a. Choice of Palin helped and did not hurt Republicans. They tactically did not use her well. Instead of sending her against the liberal press to be mauled, she should have been sent to make the rounds of the conservative radio and TV (OReilly, Sean H., Rush, etc). She should have been sent to every small town from Virginia to Minnesota spreading her message. Some complained she gave the same message. But it was the right message and telling the same story over and over could have been the winning strategy
b. McCain lost it over the Financial Crisis. He was too much insider. If instead he would have gone and fought against a government bailout, instead opting for a free enterprise solution, he might have carried the day. He needed to put his cabinet on the table early.
c. Being outspent four or five to one hurt but was not the deciding factor. See the Franks above. And the Financial crisis.
d. The media was overly liberal and pro-Barry. No doubt about it. But even the American people clearly saw a con job and knew it. They clearly understood the Media was not objective and this is going to come back to haunt the media in the next few years. The MSM (Main stream media) has seen its numbers fall steadily and that decline will continue to occur. For 2012, the New York Times and Washington Post may again be the liberal batboys but financially they will be gone and no one will be reading them except the liberal elite. ABC,, CBS, and NBC news as well as CNN and MSNBC are goners.
4. What to do next.
Some hope for 2012: a new census in 2010 which will transfer about 8-10 seats and votes from the Northeast/Midwest to the south/west and not California.
a. The mission and vision must be reviewed and returned. America is a right center country and any effort to turn it into a secular progressive paradise will fail. Newt’s research clearly shows 80-85% approve the right thoughts.
b. A shadow cabinet on the nature of the British should be formed and the Republican option for every program proposed by Barry and his boys need to be clearly stated to the American people.
c. The conservative voice will be coming from outside Washington DC. Governors provide the best chance to regain power in 2012.
d. What should be the purpose of Government? A debate and consensus on this needs to be established early.

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